Tis the season to plan and project. CEO’s, COO’s, sales managers, business owners, business coaches, consultants, and all manner of folks remind us that we should make our plans if we expect to be successful in 2009. Quotes by famous people, age old axioms, and various studies all point to the increased likelihood of success of those who take the time to plan. And we all feel good when we complete our plan. Of course, we are encouraged to implement an accountability process and review mechanism to ensure that the plan is more than just an annual exercise and becomes a document that guides our activities throughout the year.
Planning came to mind as I have been battling my way through a thought provoking book, The Black Swan, by Hassim Nicholas Taleb. I may have permanently injured my brain trying to understand everything Mr. Taleb presents and I hope he doesn’t have any kind of Google alerts that will let him know that I have, lamely, attempted to apply his writing to marketing.
The sub-title of the book is “The Impact of the Highly Improbable” and I can’t possibly get into a whole lot of his ideas here. However, a couple of the points made apply to our efforts to make projections and develop marketing plans.
In a chapter entitled “The Scandal of Prediction”, we come across the phenomenon of anchoring. This is the tendency of the mind to latch on to any random number and have it become the reference point for subsequent estimates. The idea of setting goals and how we arrive at them came to mind as I read this.
We often set goals based on a number that sounds good to us: $100,000, $500,000, ONE MILLION DOLLARS! So where are we getting the numbers that will guide next year’s activities?
Another trap that we fall into as we plan and make projections is the absolute qualities we attach to the goals we set. The truth of the matter is that our projections become subject to larger and larger error as time passes. Immediately upon completing your Excel Spreadsheet, your assumptions (the basis for you projections) start to fall apart. The countless improbables that occur daily begin immediately, and delay and shortfall add and multiply the process of decay. So the predictions that we make, and which are the basis for our plan, become flawed and erode with time. Think about what happened this past year and how much of that any us, experts included, anticipated. You can see the challenge of trying to rationally allocate resources to achieve the moving targets that are your projections.
So what do you do? Give up? Probably not. We are an optimistic species so we forget about our past reversals and move on to the future. The point is not that prediction is futile, it is that we rely too literally on our predictions, assuming them to be perfect. The fact that they are not should be no surprise and we should act accordingly. Why not select goals that range from high probability to lower probability of achieving? Use this range over the planning period to help you prioritize and adjust to the changing business environment.
The military adage that no plan survives beyond the first shot applies to all aspects of our lives. The winner is the one most prepared for change and most prepared to adapt to it. The purpose and vision we have for our business should guide us, not an arbitrary number. Selecting goals that move you closer to your vision and an understanding that we don’t know what we don’t know is more rational than hanging your hat on a random number based on our narrow tunnel of knowledge.